Voting with Their Feet: Coronavirus Pandemic Refugees and the Future of American Cities

Paralleling crisis behavior in prior pandemics and continuing a contemporary migration trend already underway, wealthy individuals and families as well as remote workers in a host of other demographic groups are fleeing major, high cost, densely settled urban centers in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These coronavirus pandemic refugees are relocating to less densely settled suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas-creating, in some instances, new "Zoom Towns.” The implications for the future viability of large cities are far ranging if, unlike prior pandemics, the social distance moves of coronavirus pandemic refugees and the aversion to dense urban living continue post-COVID-19. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Cities in a pandemic: Evidence from China.

This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the intertemporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city-specific and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on lagged infections. Moreover, there exists significant heterogeneity at different phases of the epidemiological cycle.

Compact Development Policy and Urban Resilience: A Critical Review

Sustainable development and urban resilience are dominant urban planning paradigms that have become buzzwords in urban planning and policy domains over the past 2–3 decades. While these two paradigms have been analyzed and scrutinized in different studies, the interconnection between them in policy realms is understudied. Compact development policy is expected to contribute to a variety of sustainability goals. However, these goals’ alignment with the principles and goals of urban resilience is under question. This research tries to shed some light on this issue. A critical review method is employed to understand how compactness as a sustainable urban development policy relates to different principles and dimensions of urban resilience. First, the conceptual and theoretical relationship between urban resilience and compact city is established. Next, the resulting framework is used to critically analyze 124 articles to understand how the compact city policy relates to urban resilience from different dimensions and principles. Densification and intensification, mixed land use and diversity, and spatial connectivity and public transportation are identified as principles of the compact city. Finally, the interconnection between compact city policy and urban resilience dimensions and principles is explored and assessed through examining the selected literature. The results of the review show some alignments between compact city policy outcomes and urban resilience. However, the level of alignment may vary depending on the context, scale, or dimension. In other words, while compact city in one scale/dimension can increase urban resilience to a specific adverse event or stressor, it might increase vulnerability to others in another scale/dimension. From the policy perspective, compact development policy and urban resilience principles should clearly be defined a priori to reach favorable outcomes.

Spatial congruency or mismatch? Analyzing the COVID-19 potential infection risk and urban density as businesses reopen.

Countries worldwide are reopening their businesses despite the continuing COVID-19 crisis and the emergence of new variants. In this context, knowing whether the reopening of businesses at various locations exposes higher risk to the public is essential. Whether urban density correlates with the potential infection risk as concluded by previous studies of the COVID-19 pandemic remains unknown. In this study, taking the Macau Peninsula as a testbed, we first identified business locations for daily activities according to the latest point of interest (POI) data and generated the potential risk surface for COVID-19 infection. Then, using the cellular phone network and urban footprint data, we further analyzed the spatial relationship between COVID-19 potential risk and urban density of population and morphology through visual analytics. Results show that while some degree of spatial congruency exists between medium-risk peaks and urban density hotspots, apparent spatial mismatch exists for high-risk peaks, indicating that the traditional planning control based on urban density is inadequate for mitigating public health risks. POI-based spatial layout and configuration better reflecting business services and associated human activities are recommended in future planning and policy-making for more resilient cities in the post-pandemic era.

Green Densities: Accessible Green Spaces in Highly Dense Urban Regions-A Comparison of Berlin and Qingdao

Recreational green spaces are associated with human thriving and well-being. During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic a spotlight has been shed on the interconnection between access to these spaces, human well-being and social equity. Containment measures enacted in many cities effectively precluded people from reaching distant recreational areas during the pandemic and consequently, recreational areas close to home became particularly important. Urban density is often associated with building or population density with the assumption that if either parameter has a high value, the availability of open (green) space is low. Certain densities are associated with specific spatial qualities. Addressing challenges of sustainable development, a detailed evaluation of density is necessary to allow evidence-based arguments, planning and decision-making. In this study we develop a multi-scale analysis method for quantifying and assessing green infrastructures from settlement unit to building level to reach a differentiated view on density, arguing that density can be organized in different ways achieving very different qualities. For this purpose, we use geospatial-data analysis and in-depth neighborhood studies to compare two cities in Asia and Europe, revealing different ways of organizing density in the built environment and identifying a derivation of approaches for sustainable development in dense urban regions.

Rethinking urban density, vitality and healthy environment in the post-pandemic city: The case of Istanbul.

The present study aims to examine the relationship between urban vitality, healthy environment and density through the city of Istanbul, which is going through the Covid-19 outbreak. In this context, an online survey was conducted to measure the assessments of the residents living in districts with different density categories regarding the neighborhoods and the city they live in. The evaluations made by the citizens in the dimensions of vitality, mobility, safety, healthiness, cleanliness, orderliness were reduced to two main factors as "urban vitality" and "healthy environment" using Principal Components Analysis. Then, the evaluations regarding these six variables and two factors were subjected to cross-inquiries with the personal, residential and district characteristics. Urban residents were also asked to evaluate the city life before and after the Covid-19 outbreak. The main findings of the study reveal that there is a statistically significant difference between the density levels of the districts in terms of the perception of urban vitality and some sub-variables of healthy environment. Also, there is an observed change in the thoughts about urban life in Istanbul due to the outbreak.

The impacts of the built environment on the incidence rate of COVID-19: A case study of King County, Washington.

With COVID-19 prevalent worldwide, current studies have focused on the factors influencing the epidemic. In particular, the built environment deserves immediate attention to produce place-specific strategies to prevent the further spread of coronavirus. This research assessed the impact of the built environment on the incidence rate in King County, US and explored methods of researching infectious diseases in urban areas. Using principal component analysis and the Pearson correlation coefficient to process the data, we built multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression models at the ZIP code scale. Results indicated that although socioeconomic indicators were the primary factors influencing COVID-19, the built environment affected COVID-19 cases from different aspects. Built environment density was positively associated with incidence rates. Specifically, increased open space was conducive to reducing incidence rates. Within each community, overcrowded households led to an increase in incidence rates. This study confirmed previous research into the importance of socioeconomic variables and extended the discussion on spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of urban density on the spread of COVID, effectively guiding sustainable urban development.

Moderation effect of urban density on changes in physical activity during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

Various social distancing measures were carried out in many cities worldwide during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic (COVID-19). These measures have led to decreased physical activity levels and higher health risks among urban populations. Strong evidence has been established that built environment characteristics can stimulate physical activity and thus improve public health during non-pandemic periods. Urban density was arguably one of the most important built environment characteristics. However, little is known about whether high urban density amplifies or attenuates the decline in physical activity during the pandemic. Based on two-wave physical activity data collected before and during the pandemic (in January and May 2020, respectively), we used moderation analysis to compare the changes in physical activity levels between people living in low- and high-density neighborhoods. Our results showed that people living in low-density areas have a smaller decrease in physical activity conducted in neighborhood, compared to those living in high-density areas. Our findings suggest that a flexible and porous urban development strategy could enhance the resilience of a city during the coronavirus pandemic and beyond.

Global to USA County Scale Analysis of Weather, Urban Density, Mobility, Homestay, and Mask Use on COVID-19.

Prior evaluations of the relationship between COVID-19 and weather indicate an inconsistent role of meteorology (weather) in the transmission rate. While some effects due to weather may exist, we found possible misconceptions and biases in the analysis that only consider the impact of meteorological variables alone without considering the urban metabolism and environment. This study highlights that COVID-19 assessments can notably benefit by incorporating factors that account for urban dynamics and environmental exposure. We evaluated the role of weather (considering equivalent temperature that combines the effect of humidity and air temperature) with particular consideration of urban density, mobility, homestay, demographic information, and mask use within communities. Our findings highlighted the importance of considering spatial and temporal scales for interpreting the weather/climate impact on the COVID-19 spread and spatiotemporal lags between the causal processes and effects. On global to regional scales, we found contradictory relationships between weather and the transmission rate, confounded by decentralized policies, weather variability, and the onset of screening for COVID-19, highlighting an unlikely impact of weather alone. At a finer spatial scale, the mobility index (with the relative importance of 34.32%) was found to be the highest contributing factor to the COVID-19 pandemic growth, followed by homestay (26.14%), population (23.86%), and urban density (13.03%). The weather by itself was identified as a noninfluential factor (relative importance < 3%). The findings highlight that the relation between COVID-19 and meteorology needs to consider scale, urban density and mobility areas to improve predictions.